That was the temperature here on the shore of the Potomac
River in West Virginia this morning. Okay, so I'm a wimp! I guess my blood has
thinned out as I've aged. I wonder if not consuming as much
"anti-freeze" (alcohol in various forms - beer, Scotch, vodka, etc.)
as I did when I was much younger, plays into this diminishing tolerance for sub
freezing temperatures?
It got pretty cold in northern New Jersey where I grew up
during the late 40's, 50's and 60's. Then, and I don't know what possessed me,
I chose to move to Syracuse, New York to attend graduate school at Syracuse
University over moving to Gainesville, Florida to attend the University of
Florida. Sub-freezing and sub-zero temperatures, a dozen feet of snow and layer
upon layer of winter clothes over moderate temperatures with sub-tropical
beaches and bikini clad babes just a couple hours away. What was I thinking?
Oh well, that was then and this is now. It's becoming pretty
hard to predict the weather anywhere in the U.S. anymore. Without getting into
the "global warming/climate change" debate, it is pretty obvious that
we can no longer count on any kind of recognizable weather patterns any longer.
As a kid, winter was winter. It was cold and invariably
included a nominal amount of snow. Spring was spring and became one of my two
favorite seasons. Summer was summer, typically hot and reasonably humid in
northern New Jersey. We never had air conditioning in the house or cars, so
there were some uncomfortable days and nights. Fall, my other favorite season,
was fall. I guess I viewed it as the opposite of spring. It started warm and
got progressively cooler and crisp. All the foliage that emerged in the spring
changed color, withered and went into hibernation at the approaching winter. It
was predictable. We could pretty much set our watches by it. The agricultural
community counted on it.
The fact, setting aside all the scientific and political
rhetoric, is simply that it is what it is. It really doesn't matter if you like
it or your don't like it, you can't do anything about it. Are we contributing
to it? Of course we are. It's not even logical to think any other way.
Population Expansion
The U.S. population was about 5.25 million in 1800 and in
2000 it reached 281.4 million - an increase of approximately 5,350 percent in
200 years. And between 2000 and 2012 the population has increased another 11
percent (I don't know if that includes illegal aliens who want to remain in the
shadows).
Take this to a global perspective and the numbers are even
more mind boggling. At the time of Christ, essentially 1 AD, the entire
population of the Earth was estimated at 200 million people. That is about the
same as the entire population of current day Brazil or about 5.25 times the
current population of California, the most populous state in the U.S. The
entire population of the world at that time could easily have resided in the
state of Texas with plenty of elbow room.
In 1800, the population of the world was estimated to be
just under one billion people. So, over a period of 1,800 years, the population
of the world grew approximately 500 percent. From 1800 to 1900, a period of 100
years, the population grew by 169 percent to 1.65 billion people. Another way
to look at it is that in 1,900 years the population grew by 825%. Now, here is
where the numbers really become startling. From 1900 to 2000 the world
population grew from 1.65 billion to slightly more than 6 billion, that is a
growth factor of 364 percent in 100 years. And the 50 year period from 1950 to
2000 saw population grow by 240 percent or nearly a 3.5 billion increase in
just 50 years. Remember it took 1,800 years for the world population to grow by
a mere 800 million people and 50 years to grow by 3.55 billion.
The population of the Earth has grown another 16 percent
from 2000 to 2012 adding about another billion people for a current total of
just over 7 billion people. If you ever wonder why the traffic and congestion
seems to be worse than you remember it as a youngster or young adult, it's
because 50% of the world population live in urban areas. If the urban areas of
the 1950s couldn't handle the population increase, they simply expanded the
boundaries further and further out from the central cities.
Here's another amazing thought to ponder. During the 20th
Century, A number approaching one billion people died prematurely as a result
of wars, mass annihilation (democide), famine, disease (300 million to small
pox alone), starvation and a variety of forms of natural and man made
disasters. Yet, still humans propagated very well during that Century. The
reason, of course, is encompassed in two words - science and technology.
The Human Impact
I seem to like to use the slogan dreamt up for the cigarette
brand, Virginia Slims, "We've come a long way, Baby." It's too bad it
has to be attached to something as negative as cigarettes. But, in fact, we
have come a long way. The scientific and technological advances of the past two
centuries and especially the last 112 years are amazing. Without question, they
are, in my opinion, at the very heart of why humans have thrived and increased
in such startling numbers during this period of time, despite the premature
deaths of so many humans by the variety of causes I outlined.
However, with these scientific and technological advances
that have improved the human living experience and fostered the massive
population growth, there has been a huge cost. Humans have depleted and
decimated the planet's resources at an alarming rate. Many forms of animal and
plant life have become extinct or are bordering on extinction. And, while many
people recognize the, most often, irreparable damage, too few of this unwieldy
number of human inhabitants seem to really care.
The list is too long to go into in this post on my humble
blog, but all of it impacts our water supply, healthy, organic agricultural
products, domestic and wild life supplies and even a healthy, abundant seafood
supply. I often have to wonder if the 1973 sci-fi movie, Soylent Green,
is more a prophecy than a work of fiction. In fact, the dateline of the film is
the year 2022, a mere nine years from the present. Many of the precise issues
that were the basis for the movie, indeed, are real issues today. Is this
really the future? How much of our current food supply is genetically
engineered? How do we eat agricultural products that are out of season in our
individual locations? How many of us forgotten what free range grazed beef,
chicken and pork tastes like or what a good old fashioned Beefsteak Tomato
tastes like? Why do we drink our water from plastic bottles? Is it purely for
convenience or is there an underlying, unspoken reason we find bottled water
more palatable?
And, what about the unbelievable volume of garbage we are
creating at astoundingly, ever increasing amounts. Sure, we have recycling of
certain things, but so much of this un-biodegradable garbage is creating a
strata of petroleum based garbage and chemicals that will ultimately leach into
the ground and impact more of our water and agriculture.
Gee, I sound like some kind of environmentalist, yet that's
not my intention. These are all very real facts of life and every human on the
planet is and will continue to be impacted by them. While the, so-called,
"global warming" or "climate change" topics are used as
political ammunition by various special interest groups, they are actually a
fact of life. They have occurred as part of the natural cycle of the planet's
maturing process many times over billions of years. So, no, I don't believe we
can stop it. However, there is certainly no question that we, the human
population of this bit of space dust we inhabit, are contributing to the
acceleration of this natural process. It seems alien to us only because we, as
a species, have never experienced this before. And here's a harsh and stark
reality, there are probably thousands of species that didn't survive these
natural events before.
More Interesting Factoids
For those readers in northern North America (not including
Mexico, which is considered part of Latin America) and especially the U.S., it
is important to realize that we only represent 5% of the world's total
population. That's right! We are only 5 measly percent. Asia represents 60.4%,
Africa is about 14.5% and Europe is about 11%. Yet, with our tiny 5% of the
world population, we are ranked in the #1 position with China, a country with
nearly five times our population, vying for this position, as contributing the
largest amount of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. I dare say, while I
couldn't find a statistic, that if we combined all of Asia, comprising over 60%
of the planet's human population, the U.S. would still rank very near the top
of the list. Once upon a time it was said that the U.S. had all the motor vehicles
and the former U.S.S.R. had all the parking spaces. The balance is changing,
but we are still the #1 in terms of lifestyle "bling."
But, here's some good news. The population growth trend is
reversing. In recent history, the last century and more specifically, since
1950, the peak global growth rate, 2.19%, was in 1962 and 1963 or at the end of
the generation we called the "Baby Boomers." Currently, the
population growth rate is at about 1.05%. It's projected to continue decreasing
so that by 2050 the rate will be about .45%. I didn't study all the data,
causes and effects, however, I feel confident in saying that the birth rate
will continue dropping due to better family planning methods and education. At
the same time, the population will continue to age, which is a very obvious
trend in the world. This, of course, is due to the continual advances in
science, technology and medicine. Ultimately, this should be good for the
planet.
So, What's the Point?
The point is that it's cold outside to today and it is what
it is. We are not going to change the natural rhythm of the planet, but some of
us are going to, most likely, fare better than others as these changes
continue. Those who, in my opinion, are going to fare better are those who are
doing what they can to pare back on consuming "bling" that costs
resources, yet loses it's value, if it actually had any, in very short order.
These are the people who are reevaluating their own personal lifestyle values
and seeking freedom, happiness and fulfillment from those aspects of the human
experience that have traditionally yielded those qualities.
While many, probably most, of the city dwellers will remain
in the urbanized area. Those seeking personal freedom and more fulfilling, less
stressful lives and a cleaner environment and happy lifestyle will emigrate
either to smaller population centers, rural areas or even expatriate to other
countries around the world where the lifestyle is more conducive to the values
the individuals are seeking and the cost of living is considerably lower. And,
many of these folks will look for more moderate climates with healthy, organic
food and good water. Will I see you there?
