The New Normal . . .

Well, time sure flies when you’re having fun – hmmm, are we having fun, yet? It’s been over a month since my last posting here. Yes! I have been busy. Doing fun things? Well, yes and no! But, I’m not going there, now. And I’ll pick up more on the Freedom Isn’t Free theme later

I just received an e-mail from my friend Dick Strader who is the full-time RVer I wrote about a year ago or so. He sent along a picture of the famous Apache Observation Location – Tucumcari Mountain, after which the town of Tucumcari, NM was named. He’s teasing me. He knows how bad I want to be out on the open roads seeing this continent. But, my time will come and it’s getting closer.

I haven’t heard from my other friend, Andrea, who was out seeing the country in her converted van. I trust she’s doing okay and thriving. Another friend from Winchester just joined the “living and working free” lifestyle. Actually, she gave up her apartment last October, just before I left the ranch. She left this past Saturday to start a new life and lifestyle in Florida. She called me from Georgia on Sunday. She should be in Ft Lauderdale by now.

Today, on NPR’s “All Things Considered,” the evening radio magazine on public radio stations, I heard a feature called “The New Normal.” I believe it was one of the show’s hosts, Robert Siegel who interviewed various people or received calls and e-mails from people across the country describing what the “new normal” is going to be when the U.S. returns to “normal” after this economic event (call it what you will, collapse, crisis, recession, downturn, depression, whatever). It was interesting. No one from the calls and e-mails they aired seemed to expect the U.S. to return to where it was before the event – at least not in the foreseeable future – or maybe never in our lifetimes. They were all somewhat optimistic, yet still pessimistic and cynical. But, alas, they were probably not far off the target. Actually, they weren’t all that pessimistic. I think I would say they were realistic. No, we’re not all going to go back to living in log cabins or caves and groveling for bits of thrown out food or foraging for berries and hunting for our protein.

It seems that they expect that everyone (except a small percentage of the “Haves,” as Robert Ringer, best selling author ( www.robertringer.com ) calls the one class of people in society) to be living a more conservative and frugal lifestyle. Housing will downsize into more affordable and manageable homes. People who should be renting instead of owning too much house with a mortgage they can’t afford, will be renting. There will still be cars even if GM and Chrysler join the dinosaurs in the La Brea Tar Pits. As a matter of fact, we’ll still have all the necessities we’ll need and some nice things that we want to have – probably just not as many – and we’ll learn to save and be patient instead of the instant gratification our country became so accustomed to. In reality, life will not be bad, it will just be real – and probably more pragmatic.

But, the middle class may not be the same middle class that was created in this country over the past 80 years since the Great Depression. Again, referring back to Robert Ringer, who wrote, Restoring The American Dream, since recorded history began (and probably long before that) there have always been basically two classes of people. The one class is a very small, elite, aristocratic (often self-created) class of wealthy, powerful people – the “Haves” Everyone else, the vast majority, were the “Have Nots.” Some of the Have Nots, had more then other Have Nots – this became what we called the Middle Class. In other terms, there were the Upper Class and the Lower Class – so, obviously, anyone who had a little more then the rest of the Lower Class still didn’t qualify as the Upper Class, hence – the Middle Class. It’s all very obvious and logical. But, for the most part, the Middle Class still qualifies as Have Nots. And this is why we are in the trouble we’re in. But, that, too is a subject for another day.

What concerns me, a very basic, simple, pragmatic person is how we’re going to pull this off in the future. Now, lest I sound “holier then thou,” believe me, I’ve been just as guilty as a lot of other people in some ways. I’ve lived decently all my life. I’ve indulged myself when I shouldn’t have, but I liked credit and instant gratification. I would definitely consider that I am one of those in the Middle Class – and when I was younger, I had dreams of becoming very wealthy. That was not to be, at least not from a financial perspective. However, I actually feel that I’m wealthier then I could have ever imagined – but in my own terms, not necessarily those of a materialistic society.

So, what are my concerns about the future? Well, like I’ve said many times, I’m basically a simple person. So, I look at things from a simple and, maybe, a somewhat logical perspective. We currently have approximately 77 million Baby Boomers in the U.S. (we won’t talk about the rest of the world). A very large number, possibly the majority, of these folks have lost much or most of their retirement savings. Many have lost their pensions. Many have also lost their jobs or will lose them in the future, before they were/are ready to give them up. So, they are going to need to have jobs to be able to survive for the rest of their lives – and the Baby Boomers will be the generation with the greatest longevity in history. But, we don’t have enough jobs for all these Boomers and since people are cutting back on spending and will continue to, according to predictions, savings (when there is anything to save) is going to trump having stuff, so where will the jobs be for this aging population?

But, it doesn’t stop there. It appears, that while we weren’t looking, probably because we were too busy spending, there is now a generation in our country called the “Echo Boomers.” The first Echo Boomers are just turning 25. Now, here’s the glitch – the Echo Boomers are a larger generation then the Baby Boomers. It is estimated that there are more then 80 million Echoes. They are getting out of college, grad school, high school, vocational school and junior colleges and needing jobs, too. Where are those jobs going to come from? Oh, and I haven’t included the legal immigrants or the illegal immigrants.

Well, this is a bit longer then my usual post and I’m really trying to shorten them, but I will explore this more in the future. There will be some direct correlations with living and working free in this. But, for now, just think about it?

Thoughtfully,
Ed Helvey