Ten Things That Will Disappear In Our Lifetime

A friend sent this to me this morning. Let's face it, it's no surprise. You and I have been watching this coming. Our world is constantly changing and certainly digital technology has been leading this change. We've probably seen the greatest change since Y2K, the turn of the millennium.

Remember how we feared that airplanes would fall from the sky, cars and trucks would end up in huge pile-ups when traffic lights got out of sync, our money would not be available or completely disappear from our bank accounts, etc., etc. at the stroke of midnight on January 1, 2000? Well, it didn't happen, well not that way at least. But, there has been serious change since that date. 

Some of us older folks may actually view this as an "assault" on institutions, services and traditions we never imagined would disappear. But, I'm positive that the people who were around before the steam engine, the train, the telegraph, telephone, light bulb, combustion engine and automobile, photography, motion pictures, etc. had the same thoughts. They never thought the day of the stage coach, horse and buggy, candles, kerosene lamp, Pony Express (which was short lived), messengers on horseback and so on would disappear either.

Well, it's our turn. This is happening in the U.S., at a pace that's almost dizzying, where much or most of this change is originating. Whether these changes are good or bad depends in part on how we adapt to them. But, ready or not, here they come. So, take a look at this list and let me know what you think. Are you accepting them or are you letting go, kicking and screaming, as they are torn from our aging hands? 

1. The Post Office

Get ready to imagine a world without the post office. They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably no way to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.

2. The Check

Britain is already laying the groundwork to do away with check by 2018.  It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process checks. Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check. This plays right into the death of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.

3. The Newspaper

The younger generation simply doesn't read the newspaper. They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.

4. The Book

You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages. I said the same thing about downloading music from iTunes.  I wanted my hard copy CD. But, I quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the price without ever leaving home to get the latest music. The same thing will happen with books. You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview chapter before you buy. And the price is less than half that of a real book. And think of the convenience! Once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, can't wait to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead of a book.

5. The Land Line Telephone

Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore. Most people keep it simply because they've always had it. But you are paying double charges for that extra service. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes.

6. Music

This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing. Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalogue items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."

7. Television Revenues

To the networks are down dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers. And they're playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator. Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It's time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch online and through Netflix.

8. The "Things" That You Own

Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be. But all of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "cloud services." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. 

So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. 

That's the good news. But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.

9. Joined Handwriting (Cursive Writing)

Already gone in some schools who no longer teach "joined handwriting" because nearly everything is done now on computers or keyboards of some type (pun not intended)

10. Privacy

If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That's gone. It's been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, "They" know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates and the GoogleStreet View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. "They" will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again and again.

My Personal Thoughts On The Changes

I can honestly say that I've dealt with items 1 through 8, accepted them and adapted. I do have to admit that it did take me a while to adjust to some of them. Of course, the Post Office is still with us, but for the few things it's still good for, I can see it being reduced to probably 10% to 25% of its current size and handle only the absolute necessities.

I don't miss the check or reading a newspaper (and getting black newsprint all over my hands - and remember, I started my entrepreneurial career as an independent newspaper delivery boy at age 12) and the book (remember, I was a book publisher for about 12 years and I still don't miss it). I gave up the landline telephone toward the end of 2008 when I was finally back down to only one line for the first time in decades.

Music, I don't miss it because there are so many ways to access it digitally, today (again, remember, I recorded it, produced vinyl records on my own custom label and cassettes and even a few CDs during my long career). Television, once again, I'm perfectly happy accessing anything I want of that nature on the Internet (remember, I have a masters degree in TV & Radio and I was actually involved in the establishment of some of the earliest cable TV systems in New Jersey). Stuff, #8, I can't say how happy I am to have eliminated so much stuff from my life and how I'm still working hard at getting rid of so much more of it.

I guess I'll adjust to #9, but, even though my handwriting is something atrocious, there is still something personal and distinctive about cursive writing for personal notes and signing something. Of course, since we don't actually have to physically sign much of anything anymore, I guess it really doesn't matter. Some of the people alive today may very well be the last to use that form of communication.

Now, #10! That's the one that really gets to me. In this day of growing threats of terrorism, crime and incivility in our society, the idea of being viewed and surveilled (probably a new word that will be added to the on-line dictionary in the near future) virtually all the time, when we are in public, does unnerve me. Worse, yet, is the fact that we need to cover the video cameras on our computers (or disable them) because the government and other nefarious individuals and organizations can turn them on remotely and enter the sanctity of our homes and spy on us for whatever reason they choose, good or evil. The Internet is, for the most part, a very positive thing. But, there is always a dark side.

But, who knows, soon you'll enter a men's room or ladies room, a locker room in a gym and just about any other place you can think of and expect someone, perhaps, even a voyeur to be spying on you. We already have a massively intrusive scanning system that sees through our clothes at airport security check points. That same technology mounted in mobile units can actually look through the walls of commercial buildings and homes. But, then again, heck, I was installing cameras in the elevators of a very large apartment complex in Fort Lee, New Jersey next to the George Washington Bridge. I could sit in the lobby of the complex with the security guard and watch all kinds of shenanigans going on in the elevators. Oh yeah, that was in 1965. 

All we will have left . . . that which can't be changed . . . are our "Memories."

So, how do you feel about these changes? You've seen my views. Share your feelings and thoughts. 

Wednesday Musings - Gad Zoosk, Social Media, E-mail and Privacy

Good morning on this overcast "Hump Day" here at the base camp in West, "by God" Virginia. I guess we're in mid-fall now, but one can't be sure from day to day. It's warm and sunny one day, cold and blustery the next day. The leaves are off the trees, so I guess that tells us it's fall and heading into my least favorite season, winter. With all the crazy natural events lately between Hurricane/Super Storm Sandy, the aftermath of which is way too far reaching to want to consider. Then add winter snow storms, a nor'easter and a few earthquakes to spice things up, and that's just in the past few weeks, one has to wonder about things to come.

New Jersey Governor Christie may have made a good point with his comment about waiting for the locusts and pestilence. I also notice that, for at least the past year, Costco, the wholesale warehouse club, has been selling survival kits consisting of everything one needs to survive for a year in air and water tight containers. Do they know something we don't know?

Trick or Tweet!

Gad Zoosk! No that's not a typo. If you and I are friends on Facebook or if we've had any email correspondence at some time in the past four years or so, you may have received an invitation from me to check out my photos on Zoosk. First, please accept my apology. I did not intentionally send that invitation to you or anyone. As a matter of fact, I didn't know I sent it out at all. A trusted friend sent me the same invitation. I went to look at her photos thinking Zoosk was another of the several legitimate photo server sites like Snapfish, Shutterfly and Kodak's site. Wrong!

It almost never pays to make assumptions and this is such an instance. As I attempted to navigate around the site to find my friend's photos, I did it. Yep! I did something I avoid like the plague, I inadvertently clicked on something that gave this site permission to invade and intrude on every Facebook contact I have (I'm not a big Facebook user, thankfully) and every email address in my contact list - which numbers well north of a thousand.

Zoosk, it turns out is a social networking site for single (I assume) people looking for romantic relationships. Well, I'm not interested in any such relationships at this time. And, I'm pretty sure all my married friends who received the invitation aren't either. I enjoyed my experiences with personal ads, dating services and on-line matching sites like Match.com way back. They served me well and were fun between 1990 and 2002 or 2003. But, that was then and this is now.

So, now I'm attempting to contact everyone who may have received this intrusive and unintended invitation to apologize for the inconvenience. I'm also carefully trying to figure out how to extract myself from this thing without compounding what's already happened. Daily, I'm receiving lists of women who are viewing the supposed profile I never put up and "flirting" with me. I feel like a piece of fresh meat tossed into a pond full of piranhas. Believe it or not, I still believe in serendipity. The chance meeting of two people who find common interests and a natural attraction to one another.

While I do have several social networking sites including Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace, Plaxo and Twitter sites. I monitor and use them sparingly. My Myspace account only has a handful of connections. My LinkedIn, Facebook, Plaxo and Twitter accounts variously have somewhere between 350 and 500 connections. I also have a Couchsurfing.org account, which I guess is a form of social networking with a very defined purpose. The bottom line is that these sites can be very addictive.

I use a couple applications to monitor the sites. They save me time and prevent me from getting too drawn into the sites. I post updates to the various social media sites to let people know about new posts on my blog and, when I think I have something substantive to contribute that might inform, educate or tickle the funny bone, I post it. I don't want people to know what I had for lunch today or what cute comment my doctor may have made about my slightly corpulent physical statistics that I've been "threatening" to reduce for the past few years. And frankly, that's TMI to learn about others, too.

Certainly, I don't have any problem with others sharing all forms of information about their lives, their children's and grandchildren's lives or anything else they care to. But, my living free philosophy also requires that I don't overload on information that is not of specific relevance to me. If anyone really cares to know what's important to me or what "adventures" I'm involved in they can simply come here to my blog and learn more about me then anyone would ever need to know. Of course, I hope that in sharing my ideas, beliefs and adventures, I may help others to find new ideas, opportunities and enjoy adventures for themselves.

A little bit of anything is okay, but too much of a good thing can be overbearing. I limit my social media involvement and I never play the little games like Farmville and all the other stuff. Now that I slipped and got "boinged" by Zoosk, my defensive shields are back up at full force.

Email and Other Telecommunication Technology

And, speaking of privacy and email, hmmm, were we? I've read several articles recently indicating that email is on the decline and is rapidly being replaced by texting. You can't prove that by me. My spam filter works overtime and my spam box is always full of all sorts of useless drivel. I'm an information junkie, but I've cut back a lot over the past four years as I've been downsizing and simplifying my life. I still receive too much. I need to spend a few days in "retreat" and not take phone calls or have any personal interaction with anyone. Then I can unsubscribe from things I'm not reading any longer, eliminate thousands of old, unread messages that may be a one to three years old, emails that I kept because I planned to reread or archive them and misc. other emails like notifications of electronic payments due.

No! I don't see my email diminishing. I am still acclimated to email. I hardly ever use snail mail any longer. l bought 100 Forever stamps a few years ago and I'm finally using them up. I'll buy another hundred before the price goes up again and I'm guessing they may last me 4, 5 or maybe more years. I seldom receive faxes anymore. In a way, that's sad for me. My father was one of the people instrumental in developing the fax machine. There are three patents in his name. I receive faxes by email. I send anything of a fax nature by scanning it and sending it as an email attachment. There are even more efficient ways to accomplish the same thing. I'm not big on texting, at least, not yet. I have several friends my age who text a lot. I can see where there are significant advantages and efficiencies. I'm currently just not ready to make the transition.

I also use Skype more and more. My smart phone serves as my main phone connection to the world as well as my modem for everything I do on line (I'm completely wireless). I have to strike a careful balance. I maintain only a nominal number of "anytime" minutes for phone calls. I have free mobile to mobile time with any other mobile phone on my service providers network. I also have thousands of minutes of night time (9 PM until 6 AM) and weekend minutes. All of my unused "anytime" minutes at the end of a month roll-over for future use.

My Skype calls use bandwidth on my data plan.  I also have a limited amount of that available. Since I use a very current Android Smart Phone, I do most of my Skype calls on the phone as if they were regular wireless phone calls. So, I'm continually monitoring my accounts (which is simple) and perfecting my balancing act. I'm also, always monitoring technology to see when new plans or providers offering better programs become available.

Using the Technology Saves Money and Is More Efficient

The reality is that all of this technology provides me and most other living free individuals with more personal freedom than we've every realized before. For those who have graduated to a smart phone, one little instrument handles a multitude of utilitarian requirements plus provides entertainment from reading books, magazines and newspapers to TV shows, news, weather and movies. Their value multiplies exponentially for those of us who maintain various kinds of small businesses.

Before I left the ranch I had as many as four wired phone lines. I had three toll free numbers. I had a cell phone service with an early smart phone, helpful, but not near as multi-tasking as my current phone. I had a separate flat rate long distance service. Now, I have none of those except the wireless service. My Internet connection was by Hughes satellite. There was no other way to have "high-speed" Internet in that location. My total monthly cost for all of my telecommunication services ran between $450 and $500. Currently, with my smart phone and my current account, my monthly cost is about $100.  I have one phone that does everything I outlined above. It weighs only ounces and I have access to everything I'm doing virtually everywhere I am except for the occasional wireless service "dead zone."

Privacy - An Expectation Lost

Now, privacy is another matter. All our modern technology is susceptible to interception and eavesdropping regardless of whether it's phone conversations, email, texting, surfing the Web, shopping, watching news or a movie. If you have the GPS positioning feature turned on, someone can locate you within a few yards of your specific location. The recent scandal and resignation of David Petraeus, the, now, former Director of the C.I.A., and by fall out, dragging in General John Allen, Director of Military Operations in Afghanistan, makes the point. A wired phone can be wire-tapped with a court order. Supposedly, wireless phones also require a court order to be tapped, however, pretty much anyone with a basic knowledge of the current technology and a digital scanner can listen in.

So, while we are supposed to be living in a "free" society and the land of liberty, no one has any expectation of privacy any longer unless you remove yourself 100% from the grid. Your emails, texts, phone conversations and even the sites you surf on the Web can be intercepted, monitored and, with what appears to be less and less integrity and scrutiny, used against you tosteal your identity, create discord or even destroy your family and a distinguished career.

John Allen will likely be vindicated of any serious improprieties. However, the damage is irrevocable in the case of David Petraeus. Some will say and are saying that due to the positions of importance and national security held by these two men, this invasion of privacy was appropriate. Others will take the opposing view. Personally, under the circumstances that created this firestorm, i.e. a few anonymous emails to a Florida "socialite" who used - and probably abused privilege to bring the F.B.I. into something that likely never would have warranted such an investigation, I personally side with the opposing view.

At least several lives have been painfully damaged, a career and distinguished reputation destroyed and a massive amount of expensive resources (millions of dollars of taxpayers money, when this finally blows over) misappropriated. Seems to me we had a president impeached over a very similar matter in recent history. Yet, neither his career nor his reputation nor his family was destroyed, though the blemish remains.

I guess the question is, are we no longer allowed the freedom to, A. make mistakes in our personal lives and B. keep certain parts of our lives private and, yes, even secret, if we choose to? These invasions of privacy and detrimental outcomes from actions taken due to these invasions have already been happening for quite some time to private citizens like you and me. The major difference is that we aren't newsworthy. We can't sell expensive commercial time on TV, radio and in newspapers. The mainstream news media and tabloids don't have a feeding frenzy over us. Our lives just get destroyed and no one except a few folks close to us knows or cares.

These are all important things to think about, no matter who you are or how you define living free for your life. We are blessed with all this fantastic technology, but just like most of the wonderful, modern prescription drugs, they are all fraught with side effects.

Just my musings on this, now hazy, sunny day here in West Virginia.